← Set Championship - Phantom Monarchs GK RWC
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Set Championship - Phantom Monarchs GK RWC
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |